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Will Ontario Actually Exceed LTEP Targets for Solar PV? A Quantitative Analysis

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In our expected case scenario, ClearSky Advisors anticipates total cumulative solar PV installations to reach 3,467 MW dc by 2019, which exceeds the current Long Term Energy Plan solar PV targets of 3,300 MW dc by 2021 by over 150 MW dc. Since our quantitative forecasts are based on planned future contract awards, and historical project attrition rate, a disparity of 150 MW dc is more significant than it appears on the surface. Why does the LTEP call for less solar PV than has been announced already?

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India’s Domestic Market for RECs Hinges on the Enforcement of State-level RPOs

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India’s Solar Renewable Portfolio Obligations (RPOs) have not been enforced with non-compliance payments thus far, which has been the primary cause for a weak Renewable Energy Certificates (REC) market. However, the structure exists in India for Solar RECs to drive as much as 3GW of solar installations if Solar RPOs can be enforced. Yet, with non-compliance payment collection unlikely in the near future, the REC mechanism may not play any significant role in promoting the solar industry as developers turn to more established and reliable incentives for growth.

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South Korea Confronts the Challenge of a Post-nuclear Power Future

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Domestic pressure resulting from a fake safety certificate scandal has resulted in the reassessment of the future of nuclear-generated power in South Korea. The country’s recent announcement that it will be shifting away from its previous nuclear power-skewed generation goals will be largely positive for the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market in the short-term, but may also provide additional support for the continued development of its renewable energy sector.

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India – Solar’s Round 2 Begins

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With Phase 1 of India’s National Solar Mission seemingly complete, focus has now shifted to Phase 2 which is to triple the current installed capacity by 2017. When the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM) was first released in 2010, it set a target of 20GW of solar installed capacity by 2022. The JNNSM strategy was to initially focus on building the necessary frameworks that would be required to sustain the rapid growth needed to reach 20GW by 2022. In an exponentially stepped approach, 1,100MW were targeted under Phase 1, 4,000-10,000MW (cumulative) under Phase 2, and 20,000MW (cumulative) by the end of Phase 3. Note: target capacities include both solar PV and solar thermal technologies.

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Global Residential Solar PV Installations – The Highest Penetration Rates Are Not Always Found in the Largest Markets

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When it comes to residential solar, Germany is head and shoulders above the rest of the world with over 4,000MW of installed residential capacity. But, this does not necessarily translate into also having the highest residential solar PV penetration rate. When examined on a per household basis, solar PV adoption rates in several global regions exceed that currently found in Germany.

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Vietnam – Potentially Exciting Prospects for Long-term Solar PV Growth

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Vietnam currently lacks a developed solar PV sector, but the range of possible market scenarios for PV in the country are much wider and potentially more promising than most other regional countries examined by ClearSky Advisors. While the absence of any policy-based driver has been a significant barrier to the growth of solar PV in Vietnam, it can with the right formula, become a regional solar PV powerhouse.

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Australia – With or Without a Carbon Tax, Australia’s Solar PV Capacity will Continue to Grow

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Australia’s Renewable Energy Target of 20% energy generation from renewable energy sources by 2020 combined with supportive state and territory-level initiatives has precipitated the impressive growth of solar PV in the country. The nation’s carbon tax has not played a large role in driving this growth and the new Australian administration’s plan to scrap this program is expect to have minimal impact, if any, on the solar PV sector in Australia.

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Canada’s Solar Thermal Market – Has it Bottomed Out?

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According to the report “Survey of Active Solar Thermal Collectors, Industry and Markets in Canada – 2012” recently released by Natural Resources Canada and prepared by ClearSky Advisors, Canada’s solar thermal industry experienced a tumultuous 2012 and continued the downward trend it has been experiencing since its peak in 2010. Yet many industry participants expect that further decline is unlikely, even in the absence of any significant growth in 2013.

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Jordan – The second round of large-scale project solicitation is set to begin

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Jordan’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) has recently announced the initiation of the second round of its direct large-scale proposals initiative. Similar to the first round, this program allows for the direct submission of proposals for investment in large-scale renewable energy projects. These projects are developed on a build-own-operate basis with produced power purchased at a fixed rate by the country’s utility, NEPCO.

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