Solar in Ontario for 2015 and beyond? It is up to us now.
When the Government of Ontario offered an additional 257MW (ac) of solar contracts on February 24, 2011 it provided Ontario’s solar industry with both an opportunity and a challenge. The Ontario solar industry has now been given a total of 2,680 MW (dc) worth of contracts – including contracts awarded through RESOP, the Korean Consortium and the FIT Program – of which only 220 MW dc had been built by the end of 2010. In other words, around 2,460 MW dc remains to be built – providing a great opportunity for manufacturers, developers, installers, electricians, EPC providers and others to do a significant amount of solar business between now and 2014 – at least measured by any North American standard.
Given that the Government’s goal for solar energy in Ontario is around 2,700 MW (dc) according to the draft Long Term Energy Plan (LTEP) published in November 2010, the next couple of years will most likely see significantly lower volumes of new contracts than what has been the case in recent years.
In 2014-2015 Ontario’s Government will again be putting together a new Long Term Energy Plan. At that point, the Government must balance ratepayer burden and energy supply mix with the needs of the solar industry.
In the years leading up to the 2015 LTEP, the challenge for the industry is clear:
- If the industry wants to be sustainable beyond 2015, cost levels for equipment and installation must come down significantly.
- At the same time, the industry must firmly demonstrate the economic benefits (such as job creation and export potential) that were part of the initial political appeal when the FIT program was launched.
An increased target for solar energy in the 2015 LTEP depends on how well the industry executes on those two points. On the cost side, installed cost of solar must be at least 50-60% below 2010 levels. On the job side, a solid handful of Ontario panel and inverter manufacturers must have demonstrated that they can compete effectively in markets outside Ontario for the Government to justify increased solar targets.
With 2,460MW contracts to build over the next few years, the industry must complement it’s ongoing lobbying efforts with real resolve to making itself more competitive. We are certain that the German PV industry and the companies that have experience from that marketplace can offer some suggestions to get us going. Driving costs down and enhance customer understanding of the benefits of solar energy, essentially means that the industry must innovate across the entire value chain – improving everything from equipment, processes, marketing and business models. No small challenge, but for anyone passionate about succeeding in the solar industry you’d rather be in Ontario than anywhere else in North America.
Illustration photo by bensonkua
