Ontario PV market growth weighed down by political and regulatory uncertainty, but will reach 455MW in 2011
Toronto, Ontario (February 18, 2011): 2011 Ontario PV market to grow by almost 270% compared to 2010 according a study by independent research firm ClearSky Advisors.
Following persistent uncertainty about political support for Ontario’s FIT program on top of numerous program changes and delays, ClearSky Advisors is downgrading its market forecast from September 2010 by more than 200MW for 2011. Specifically, lack of clarity around the requirements for obtaining Renewable Energy Approvals (REA) – a process managed by Ontario’s Ministry of Environment and Ministry of Natural Resources – has forced developers of utility scale projects to delay most of their construction which will reduce 2011 demand for equipment and services accordingly.
At 455 MW for 2011, Ontario will still be a leading market in North America, but the ongoing uncertainty around the FIT program has caused a number of module and inverter manufacturers to postpone or scale back decisions to invest and hire in the province.
“We interviewed 65 stakeholders from Ontario’s solar industry, and the number one challenge within the Ontario solar marketplace was political and regulatory uncertainty” says Jon Worren, co-founder of ClearSky Advisors. “The perceived instability of the FIT program among industry stakeholders appears to be putting investment, job creation and economic development at risk.”
Study highlights:
1) Short-Term: Developers and installers may expect some module supply shortages in Q2 2011, but as manufacturers are ramping up their capacity ClearSky Advisors expects supply to meet demand for 2011 as a whole.
2) Long-Term: Ontario’s PV market is expected to reach cumulative volume of installations of 2,500 MW by 2015, including demand from FIT program, RESOP program and Korean consortium agreement.
3) Supply: ClearSky Advisors expects over 30 solar module and inverter manufacturers to be present in Ontario in 2011.
The ClearSky Advisor study covers supply and demand in the Ontario PV market for the period 2011 through 2015, including market forecast scenarios, supply capacity and pricing, market volume and value.
Article image courtesy of Wayne National Forest.
