Get ready for a 2012 reality check: Current US solar policy will leave PV market short of solar industry’s expectations

Toronto (November 15, 2011): While the long-term market outlook for the US solar PV market is positive, 2012 will not offer suffering module manufacturers the reprieve they were hoping for. In their recently released US PV market forecast, ClearSky Advisors Inc. predicts installed volume will grow 7% to 1,628 MW in 2012. However, falling equipment prices – especially for PV modules – means that overall market value for 2012 will be flat or may even drop when compared to 2011.

Continued overcapacity in the solar supply chain will see the cut-throat competition in the solar PV supply-chain continue, with average selling prices for modules continuing to fall at least for the first part of 2012. Not until 2014 will market conditions improve markedly for those equipment suppliers that have managed to continue to cut costs, as solar power will become cost competitive even without state level incentives in some areas.

In the short-term, the analysis performed by ClearSky Advisors points towards opportunities in carefully targeted markets. The diversity of state-level solar policies means that the US market must be treated as many local markets – each with its own set of policies and conditions that determine the magnitude of the local opportunity.

“In 2012, the US PV market belongs to those equipment suppliers who are able to effectively target their market and calibrate their offering to local market dynamics” says Brennan Louw, Senior Analyst at ClearSky Advisors. “Simply having a presence in the California and New Jersey markets will not cut it going forward”.

Key highlights from the forecast:

• Driven by state-level policies, especially states with renewable portfolio standards with solar carve-outs, market growth in 2015 will be increasingly dominated by utility scale projects.
• Continued decreases in equipment prices will make solar power cost competitive in certain areas toward the end of the forecast period.
• The West will remain the largest regional market for the foreseeable future and California and New Jersey will be the single most important states for some time to come, even if both states will face intermittent market disruption.

All facts and figures are reported in the US PV Market Forecast 2011-2015, published by ClearSky Advisors Inc. The report contains market forecast scenarios, pricing, market volume, regional analysis and an analysis of emerging states. The market forecast is based on an analysis of the PV markets and the key market policies in each of the 50 US states.

For inquiries and interviews contact:

Tim Wohlgemut
+1-(647)-297-0045
tim@clearskyadvisors.com

Press Release posted on PR Buzz

Illustration photo by Hamed Saber